Global shipping troubles, textile industry inventory imbalance

The world's shipping industry is in its biggest dilemma in 65 years! Port congestion and rising or continuing freight rates have become the main theme in the first half of next year!

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the disadvantages of backward port infrastructure worldwide have become increasingly prominent. According to Kuehne+Nagel's real-time data, there are currently 353 cargo ships blocked in ports worldwide, twice the number at the beginning of the year. There are 22 freighters waiting outside the Port of Long Beach and Los Angeles in the United States. Congestion followed by rising prices of goods, delays in delivery, mismatch of market capacity, and "explosive schedule" of freight rates.

One of the reasons for global cargo congestion is the varying levels of border controls in various countries in response to the epidemic, and the forced shutdown of many factories, which endangers the smoothness of the entire supply chain and causes soaring freight rates for shipping routes in China, the United States and Europe.

In just two weeks, due to port congestion and new Covid-19 restrictions, the number of dry bulk carriers near Chinese ports has almost exploded.

According to AIS data obtained by dry bulk carrier Lauritzens Bulkers, recently, 7.5% of the world’s small dry bulk carriers, including Handysize and Supramax, are berthed near Chinese ports. This means an increase of 37% in just 10 days, which is equivalent to about 570 dry bulk carriers waiting to be unloaded at Chinese ports. The data two weeks ago was about 400 ships, and the number of handy and super handy dry bulk ships in the world was about 7,725.

More terrifying than the high sea freight and port congestion is the increase in stocks of grey fabrics!

After mid-July, the downstream chemical fiber weaving industry orders gradually turned cold. Although the overall operating rate is still at a high level in the same period, it is difficult to analyze the situation of various regions and models in detail. In the second half of the year, what is more terrifying than the lack of orders and the high sea freight is the increase in the stocking of grey fabrics.

At present, judging from the trend of various indicators, the start-up load of weaving is still at a high level in previous years, and the inventory of grey fabrics and raw materials are still within the controllable range. From the above three indicators, it can be determined that the current There is support for the load and price of diol, but an indicator that cannot be ignored is the number of order days. It is basically approaching the same period in 2020. The off-season atmosphere is undoubtedly leaked. It can be concluded that the three indicators are relatively large support points. bet".

Although orders from Southeast Asia did return to a certain extent during this period, and orders for autumn and winter weaving were also launched in advance, more atmosphere came from cloth dealers’ inquiries and orders, which created a “prosperous” scene in the market. Start a large-scale signing model, especially for autumn and winter orders.

So what effect does the weaving of the grey cloth have on the raw materials? On the surface, the excessive amount of grey cloth in society has a drag on the start of weaving, polyester yarn, and even PTA and ethylene glycol. Once the merchants have intensive and large-scale low-price dumping behavior, it will be extremely detrimental to the entire chain. However, through communication with cloth dealers, if the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" arrives as scheduled in the second half of the year or the price of polyester yarns is firm, this part of grey fabrics may be considered for digestion next year, and the impact on the market can be ignored for the time being.